Executives from oil and gas firms have revealed where they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at various points in the future in the first quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was released recently.

The survey asked participants what they expect Henry Hub natural gas prices to be in six months, one year, two years, and five years. Executives from 110 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave a mean response of $3.53 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) for the six month mark, $3.72 per MMBtu for the year mark, $4.03 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $4.42 per MMBtu for the five year mark, the survey showed.

Executives from 110 oil and gas firms also answered this question in the fourth quarter 2025 Dallas Fed Energy Survey and gave a mean response of $3.99 per MMBtu for the six month mark, $4.30 per MMBtu for the year mark, $4.57 per MMBtu for the two year mark, and $5.00 per MMBtu for the five year mark, that survey showed.

The latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey also asked participants what they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at the end of 2026. Executives from 128 oil and gas firms answered this question and gave an average response of $3.60 per MMBtu, the survey highlighted. The low forecast was $2.30 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $5.25 per MMBtu, and the average daily spot price during the survey was $3.16 per MMBtu, the survey pointed out.

The fourth quarter Dallas Fed Energy Survey was the first Dallas Fed Energy Survey which asked participants what they expect the Henry Hub natural gas price to be at the end of 2026. Executives from 124 oil and gas firms answered the question and gave an average response of $4.19 per MMBtu, that survey highlighted. The low forecast was $1.75 per MMBtu, the high forecast was $6.50 per MMBtu, and the average daily spot price during the survey was $4.84 per MMBtu, the fourth quarter survey pointed out.

In a natural gas focused EBW Analytics Group report sent to Rigzone by the EBW team on Friday, Eli Rubin, an energy analyst at the company, outlined that “volatility risks” were “elevated into April final settlement”.

“Yesterday’s [Thursday’s] April options expiry session closed at $2.999 – just under the $3.00 per MMBtu threshold – and cooler weather across the Midwest is offsetting bearish fundamentals,” Rubin said in the report.

“In the immediate term, April final settlement may lift volatility risks, with the past two years seeing final settlement sessions swing an average 13.0 cents per MMBtu,” he added.

Rubin highlighted in the report that production readings were “beginning to recover after weakness” earlier in the week, adding that “intramonth patterns often favor gains into the end of the calendar month”.

“Weekly LNG feedgas remains flat as seasonality, maintenance and facility inconsistency limit upside. Daily heating demand may rise into the weekend before slipping into Tuesday,” he said.

Rubin went on to state in the report that, “fundamentally, the outlook of mild weather, strong injections, and a rising storage surplus to exceed 100 billion cubic feet by mid-April remains intact to bias medium-term risk lower”.

“However, Iran war influences continue to offer near-term support for NYMEX gas prices,” he said.

In the report, EBW predicted a “volatility risks rise” trend for the NYMEX front-month natural gas contract price over the next 7-10 days and a “likely lower” trend over the next 30-45 days.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted in its latest weekly natural gas storage report, which was released on March 26 and included data for the week ending March 20, that working gas in storage was 1,829 billion cubic feet as of Friday, according to its estimates.

“This represents a net decrease of 54 billion cubic feet from the previous week,” the EIA said in the report.

“Stocks were 90 billion cubic feet higher than last year at this time and 14 billion cubic feet above the five-year average of 1,815 billion cubic feet. At 1,829 billion cubic feet, total working gas is within the five-year historical range,” it added.

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