Oil pushed higher as traders braced for a protracted conflict in the Middle East that could further roil energy markets.

Global benchmark Brent rose 4.2% to settle above $112 a barrel after erasing an earlier drop, while West Texas Intermediate settled above $99. US President Donald Trump pushed back a deadline for striking Iranian energy infrastructure by 10 days and Secretary of State Marco Rubio told CNN that the US hasn’t received Iran’s response to Washington’s 15-point plan for talks to end the war.

Brent crude is on pace for a record monthly gain in March. With Tehran forcing the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, restricting flows of energy vital to the global economy.

Even as discussions about efforts to secure a ceasefire continued on Friday, the US and Israel bombed Iranian nuclear and steel facilities, while Iran retaliated across the Persian Gulf.

Oil-market liquidity has thinned in recent sessions as traders fatigued by the breakneck newsflow move to the sidelines, amplifying price swings. Potential for near-term escalation during the weekend also prompted accelerated buying just ahead of market settlement.

“No one is going home short while there are no clear signs of de-escalation,” said Darrell Fletcher, managing director for commodities at Bannockburn Capital Markets. At this point, even a quick resolution to the conflict would be hard-pressed to unwind the extensive physical and geopolitical fallout, he added.

Brent has surged by about 53% so far in March, and petroleum-product costs from diesel to jet fuel have rallied even more, burdening businesses and consumers. The increases have triggered concern about a simultaneous spike in global inflation and slowdown in growth.

“Lacking any meaningful peace progress in the Middle East, oil appears to be forming a near-term floor in the $85 to $90 a barrel range,” said Bret Kenwell, analyst at eToro, which tracks retail investing.

The spread between Brent and WTI widened on Friday to roughly $13 a barrel, compared to $5 less than a month ago. US benchmark gains have been muted amid ample regional inventories and an imminent strategic reserves release, boosting demand for the relatively cheap crude among foreign buyers cut off from their usual Persian Gulf supplies.

Trump’s deadline extension in Iran allows more time for talks, but also for the US to amass additional forces in the region. That includes Marine Expeditionary Units and soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division, according to people familiar with the matter.

Publicly, Iranian officials remain defiant and said Trump is backing down from threats in order to lower energy prices.

While there was a roughly 60% probability of the war finishing by end-March, there were 40% odds of a longer conflict, possibly through June, according to Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts. The latter scenario could drive oil to $200 a barrel, they wrote in a note.

The Trump administration is also trying to arrange a meeting for Vice President JD Vance in Pakistan this weekend to discuss an off-ramp to the war, CNN reported, citing two US officials.

The vital Hormuz waterway carried about a fifth of global oil flows before the conflict erupted. Despite the broader standstill, there has been a recent marginal increase in Iran-linked ships — mostly bulk carriers and LPG vessels — attempting to pass through. Two large container ships linked to China’s state-owned Cosco Shipping Corp. attempted to exit the Gulf on Friday, before making an abrupt U-turn near Iran and motoring back.

The United Arab Emirates has told the US and other allies it would participate in a multinational maritime task-force intended to reopen the strait, the Financial Times reported, citing three people familiar with the situation. Abu Dhabi would deploy its own navy, two of the people said.

Across the Asia-Pacific region, India cut taxes on diesel and gasoline to cushion the impact of surging crude prices on its refiners, and Vietnam froze some fuel levies until mid-April. New Zealand said there was evidence of increased demand, partially from hoarding or stockpiling

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