Oil resumed its ascent on Tuesday with lingering uncertainty over the time-frame for reopening the vital Strait of Hormuz.

After a steep decline on Monday, the global benchmark Brent climbed 4.6% to settle near $104.50 a barrel on Tuesday. It had traded below $100. Prices pared most gains post-settlement after an Israeli media report that the US is seeking a one-month ceasefire with Iran.

Trading marked another volatile session, with swings tracking the day’s developments out of the Middle East. US President Donald Trump again said negotiations were underway with high-level Iranian officials to end the war. Meantime, the US is planning to deploy about 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the region, the Wall Street Journal reported, as the White House weighs options to ease Iran’s chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

“The military isn’t giving any indication that this is winding down,” said Aaron Stein, President of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “Far from it. Everything I’m seeing and hearing from DoD is that they’re planning for a longer campaign.”

Brent has risen about 40% this month on concern the hostilities between the US, Israel and Iran will trigger a global energy crunch, boosting inflation. The war has stymied transit through Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s oil and gas transits, much of it headed for Asia.

The de facto closure has forced Persian Gulf producers to cut millions of barrels of daily oil output. Petroleum products such as diesel and jet fuel have rallied even harder than crude, squeezing consumers and rattling governments. The Philippines declared a national energy emergency.

Prices rose earlier in the day after several Gulf Arab states expressed willingness to join the war and could be pushed to if Tehran attacks their critical infrastructure, according to several people with knowledge of the situation. But they would only join the war if Tehran makes good on its threats to attack vital Gulf power and water infrastructure — a high threshold, the people added.

Meantime, countries from China to Pakistan urged the US and Iran to negotiate an end to hostilities.

A trickle of ships has successfully exited the Persian Gulf in recent days, even as the bulk of traffic through the critical artery remains stalled. Iran in a letter circulated to members of the International Maritime Organization said foreign ships are allowed to cross the strait as long as they aren’t supporting acts of aggression against the country.

Tuesday’s developments helped to partially walk back the previous session’s price declines, when the market dropped after Trump delayed a threat to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure for five days, claiming the US was in talks with Tehran.

The drama is unfolding as a large segment of the energy industry meets in Houston for the annual CERAWeek by S&P Global conference.

Speaking at the gathering by video on Tuesday, Kuwait Petroleum Corp. Chief Executive Officer Sheikh Nawaf Al-Sabah said that Gulf producers will need as many as four months to resume full output. Shell Chief Executive Officer Wael Sawan estimated that the physical disruption will spread to Europe from Asia next month.

The fallout continues to expand. Chile is set to raise fuel prices as much as half, while in Asia, Japan ordered a review of its entire supply chain for oil-related products and the country is said to have made inquiries with market participants on possible intervention in the crude oil futures.

The prolonged Strait closure led TD Securities to raise its Brent and WTI forecasts by 36% to about $85 and $90 a barrel, respectively. Enverus Intelligence Research, meanwhile, lifted its Brent outlook by over 60%, projecting an average of $95 a barrel for the rest of 2026.

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